The Most Interesting Tech Predictions (Hits & Misses)

From interpretations of Nostradamus’s Prophecies to imaginative inventions in sci-fi movies, people have been predicting the future of science and technology for centuries. Some have been positive and even proved true over time – and many claimed certain technologies would never exist. 

For example, in 1936, The New York Times predicted that a rocket would never leave the earth’s atmosphere. NYT was proven wrong multiple times in the years that followed, and an estimated 197 were launched in 2023 alone. Then there was Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s assessment that the iPhone wouldn’t take a significant portion of the mobile phone market. Currently, iPhones account for over 28% of the global smartphone market share.

Only time can tell how technology will advance, and how critical new discoveries will become to our everyday lives. Read on to discover failed predictions and some that came true. We even threw in a few newer technologies expected to trend this year and continue to grow in popularity.

8 Tech Predictions That Missed the Mark

It may surprise you to learn that while many of us might take smart homes and AI for granted, plenty of well-known individuals dramatically underestimated how technology would evolve. Here are a few predictions that weren’t on target – let’s take a look at just how off the mark they were.

1. No-Fly Zone

The heaviest plane ever built, the Antonov An-225 Mriya, was created in Russia in the 1980s. It weighed approximately 314 US tons, and had a maximum flight weight of 705 US tons. The only An-225 produced, it flew many times, primarily to transport cargo. 

To fly, planes must generate enough lift to counter the pressure of gravity, and every aspect of their build and what it carries must be evenly distributed to ensure a proper center of gravity so they can take to their, despite being heavier than it.

2. A Plywood Bore

How we view TV and what’s available on it has changed dramatically since its invention, but our love of it hasn’t. The plywood box with the heavy tubes has gotten slimmer and lighter over time, and today’s flatscreen TVs are a multibillion dollar industry. Data from Statista shows that in 2024, US adults will watch an estimated three hours of traditional TV daily. This is actually a decreasing trend, as the estimate doesn’t include time spent streaming content on phones, tablets, or laptops.

After all, you can now watch your favorite series on demand via streaming platforms instead of sitting down at the same time every week to watch. You don’t have to wait for a rerun when you miss a show: simply choose the episode you missed and catch up. People who do watch on actual TVs might never be bored of their “plywood boxes” – smart TVs also let users shop, check emails, browse the internet, and watch online videos on services like YouTube directly on screen via a Wi-Fi or Ethernet connection. 

3. Incorrect Data

Contrary to the prediction, the data analytics market is estimated to reach $745+ billion by 2030 – not bad for something that was once seen as a fad. Data processing involves collecting raw data and translating it step-by-step into usable information. 

This type of processing is used by three out of every five organizations worldwide. Data analytics helps to streamline processing and minimize the cost of production.

4. Retail Sale Fail

As of 2024, approximately 3 billion people worldwide shop online, and ecommerce makes up 20% of all global retail sales. As well as the convenience of shopping from home and having items delivered, one of the largest draws for online consumers is the advent of special online sales days like Cyber Monday, the ecommerce answer to Black Friday. 

Around 63% of online shoppers shop online because they’re attracted to exclusive offers they can’t get in-store. Larger ecommerce stores, like Amazon and Walmart, offer free shipping and additional perks for subscribing members – for example, Amazon Prime Video is included in Amazon Prime subscriptions. These perks are a huge plus for consumers who want to get more for less.

5. No Need for a Household Computer

This one missed the mark by quite a bit: more than 94% of households in the US have at least one computer. Computers have become a necessity for school children, individuals who work remotely, college students, and others. Covid-19 saw more people attending remote classes and working exclusively online between 2019 and 2020, meaning many households had to have more than one computer available.

Computers have come a long way. Once building-sized machines, today’s laptops pack more processing power and can come with you pretty much anywhere. Some form of computer can now control our lighting systems, TVs, heat regulation, and more (think pre-installed smart home features and Amazon Alexa devices). We even have computers that fit in our hands like smartphones and tablets.

6. Unnecessary Power

Most computers today run 32- or 64-bit operating systems. The bit size defines different classes of build and determines how resources and components are managed, including buses, RAM, CPU, and software.

Some components, including graphics chips, may use 128-bit processing, but it isn’t available as a base for operating systems. CPUs that process 128 bits as a single unit exist but aren’t publicly available, mostly because consumers don’t need that much power in a PC.

7. Mobile Phone Mistake

Data from Statista shows that more than 68% of the global population has a mobile phone, so it appears the pipe dream of a personal communicator in every pocket is possible. As well as basic calls and text messages, smartphones allow for video chat, work, gaming, shopping, and more, all from a small handheld device. 

While initial cell phones were initially too big to fit into pockets, they evolved into flat and even foldable devices that are now thinner than a checkbook and easily fit into a purse or coat pocket. Mobile devices don’t seem to be losing popularity either – the number of global smartphone users is expected to reach 8 billion by 2028. 

8. Off Tune

With roughly 97 million subscribers by the end of 2023, it’s clear that subscription music services are far from bankrupting. The ability to listen to your favorite music on demand, or select one or two songs you love and download them instead of paying for an entire album, is still popular. 

Data from RIAA shows that music streaming services like Apple Music and Spotify brought in $11+ billion in revenue in 2023 alone. Even digital radio services like Sirius XM made approximately $1 billion. 

4 Tech Revelations That Turned Out to Be True

Sometimes, the predictions of writers, innovators, and others are right on the money. In this section, we take a look at four seemingly outlandish predictions about technological advancement that came true.

1. Electric Sub

In his book Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea, author Jules Verne predicted submarines that ran on electricity would exist. Almost a century later, a submarine called Alvin ran using electricity as one of its primary power sources. 

In the late 1900s, diesel-electric engines allowed submarines to travel farther and stay submerged longer. Before this, submarines ran on coal or gasoline but lacked the power needed for long-term voyages.

2. Rapid Photo Sharing

Gone are the days of film, dark rooms, and the fastest photo processing taking 24 hours. Digital cameras and smartphones mean you can take photos and send them instantly. No extensive processing is required – though touch-ups and editing can take time (unless you simply slide instant filters over your pics on your phone).

There are entire sites and apps dedicated to sharing photos with friends, family, and followers. Photo and video sharing sites like Instagram and TikTok let people share photos and videos with viewers worldwide in a matter of seconds.

3. Wireless Charge

Issac Asimov predicted several technological wonders that were later developed. The most impressive was the idea that future electrical devices wouldn’t require cords, and would instead be able to charge wirelessly. Wireless charging was incorporated into cell phones, tablets, and other devices en-mass in 2017.

Speaking of cell phones, Asimov predicted using handheld devices to call people. On that note, Motorola mass-produced the first handheld mobile phone in 1973. Smart cars haven’t quite taken over yet, but he also predicted “cars with robot brains.”

4. Smart Homes

The onset of a new millennium had people worrying about Y2K, but Bill Gates was essentially predicting smart homes. He envisioned houses that could adjust lighting, music, heat, and more automatically to fit your preferences. 

Smart devices accept voice commands to play music, turn on your smart TV or lights, and place items on your shopping list for specific e-commerce sites (Amazon, Chewy, CVS, Walmart, etc.). Smart home security systems include video doorbells and alarms that allow you to view anyone at the door and automatically alert authorities to suspicious activity. 

The New Era of Tech Trends & Predictions

New innovative technologies are starting to catch on, but what are they capable of and will they meet expectations? Check out four emerging technologies predicted to take off in the next decade. 

Generative Artificial Intelligence

Generative artificial intelligence (GAI) is built on complex language models and algorithms that are capable of generating new content using the consumer requests and known information from online sources. While many people think of programs like ChatGPT or Bard when discussing GAI, it’s capable of more than writing papers or creating images. GAI can write music and code, complete hospital medical imaging analyses, and create high-resolution weather forecasts for news broadcasts and websites. 

GAI’s capabilities are evolving, and the potential for it to cut operational costs in the long term could be a big draw for corporations to invest in the tech. Its use is already taking root: one 2022 survey showed that the use of AI in businesses has doubled since 2017. 

It does have some limitations, the largest of which is that it relies heavily on the internet for information. This means it could also generate false or biased information based on available input. Efforts to improve GAI tools are ongoing, so who knows what the future holds for this technology.

AR & VR Integration

Augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) are already integrated into the marketing practices for fashion lines, travel agencies, and home goods. AR is often used to help consumers visualize how certain furniture or appliances will look in their homes, like Amazon’s AR View. You can even try out a new makeup look, haircut, or color using an AR tool – before committing to an expensive purchase or style. 

VR is a bit more immersive. Headsets that offer VR for gaming can simulate the feeling of skydiving and be close enough to reality to give you a sick stomach. Still, VR isn’t just a gaming fad: it’s an outlet. Individuals who would otherwise be unable to go on a cruise or travel to another country can take a virtual tour and feel like they are exploring the world. 

Many travel companies now offer simulations of real experiences you can have on their tours and provide a 360 degree view of the destination. You can even attend virtual concerts, climb mountains, and swim with dolphins using VR technology – all from the comfort of your home.

Some speculate that AR and VR technology will become a regular tool for training pilots, architects, engineers, medical professionals, and more. VR simulations are so real a student can implement actions as they would in the field, but forego any real risk.

Sustainable Technology

Sustainable technology is tech that lessens environmental impact in some way, whether by reducing the overall carbon footprint of an existing product or process, or using greener methods to create a product. The concept and use of sustainable technology is more pressing due to climate change, which makes reducing the impact humans have on the environment increasingly important.

Solar panels are an excellent example of sustainable technology. They soak up the sun and convert it to power by generating electric charges which are captured and converted into usable energy. Solar power is capable of lighting homes, energizing farm irrigation systems and machinery, and even charging some handheld tech devices. 

A lesser known sustainable tech device is a smartphone made by Fairphones. These phones use removable batteries, reducing the amount of e-waste in landfills. The company also reduces its environmental impact by using 70% recycled materials to build their smartphones. 

Some professionals predict that the use of green technologies will only increase, especially as they are an efficient way to lower costs in the long run. According to one study, the market for sustainable technologies is projected to reach approximately $74 billion by 2030. Businesses may even get tax breaks for using sustainable technologies, depending on what country or state they live in. 

Quantum Computing

Quantum computing is based on two primary features of quantum physics: superposition and entanglement. This allows quantum computers to perform operations at lightning-fast speeds that require far less energy consumption than a standard computer.

First, we talk qubits. A qubit is a quantum bit, which is any bit made from a quantum system, including electrons and photons. Like all bits, or like binary, qubits have two unique states. Essentially, they allow for the creation of intricate multidimensional computative spaces, so problems can be represented in a variety of ways at the same time, and ultimately making it easier to solve complex problems. 

Quantum computing has many potential uses including developing new drugs and genetically targeted medical care, advancing DNA research, creating ways to use light signals to detect computer system infiltration, designing better data encryption (this allows for better protection of your data anywhere it might end up, from banking apps to dedicated IP VPNs), and more. The limits of quantum computing are seemingly endless, but is it all just a dream?

If Google is any indication, it doesn’t seem that way. The company has invested billions of dollars to have its quantum computer built by 2029. IBM already has them, along with a proprietary open-source quantum SDK with modules for finance, chemistry, optimization, and machine learning applications.

The Future of Technology

Plenty of tech predictions have been wrong, bringing us incredible inventions like airplanes, cars, wireless charging, and smartphones. Others were right on the money. So, what does the future hold for technology? 

We can make predictions, but no one truly knows. What gets made, and what remains a dream, depends on time and those with the skills and imagination to make it come to life.